Thursday, 24 December 2009
Climate Change
It seems my initial info on this subject fell on deaf ears. Perhaps it's time to bust some myths.
A good place to start reading is here.
http://www.climatechangefacts.info/
In particular it covers the following.
http://www.fel.duke.edu/~scafetta/pdf/opinion0308.pdf
A paper by Scafetta and West.
Nicola Scafetta is a research associate in the Duke University physics department. Bruce West is chief scientist in the mathematical and
information science directorate, US Army Research Office, in Research Triangle Park, North Carolina.
Remember what I said about Argument from Authority though. Just because these guys are scientists does not make them right. It's a complex paper, but one key point is of interest. They claim 69% of observed warming is caused by the sun. Because of course, the sun is a big ball of gas that will get hotter and hotter until eventually it uses up its fuel and begins to die, plunging the Earth into icy coldness.
Returning to the main article, I find this paragraph interesting.
It is generally accepted that the Earth has been much warmer than today, for example, in the time of the dinosaurs (the mid-cretaceous period) when the CO2 was 2 to 4 times greater than today (NOAA). More recently, in the prior period between ice ages, just 125,000 years ago, the Earth also was much warmer than today and the sea level much higher - by about 13 to 20 feet (4 to 6 meters) (IPCC). The primary driver of the past climate shifts is believed to be orbital mechanics and solar variability, with some contribution from Earth geophysical processes, such as volcanic eruptions. It is also known that mankind's contribution to CO2 is just a small percent (3%) of the total amount and that the total is very small - there is 23.6 times more argon (.009) in the atmosphere than CO2 (.00038). Lastly, we know that the Earth's temperature and the level of CO2 rise and fall roughly together, but it is not clear (not proven) whether this is cause and effect by either variable. In a first attempt (Hadley-chart) to use a CO2 - based model to predict temperatures, the results are not impressive at all and are exactly opposite observations.
Some interesting stuff too on rising sea levels.
Dr. Nils-Axel Mörner (leading expert on sea level): "If you go around the globe, you find no rise anywhere. But they need the rise, because if there is no rise, there is no death threat. They say there is nothing good to come from a sea-level rise, only problems, coastal problems. If you have a temperature rise, if it’s a problem in one area, it’s beneficial in another area. But sea level is the real “bad guy,” and therefore they have talked very much about it. But the real thing is, that it doesn’t exist in observational data, only in computer modeling."
Professor Nils-Axel Mörner, Head of Paleogeophysics & Geodynamics, Stockholm University, Sweden President, (1999-2003) of the INQUA Commission on Sea Level Changes and Coastal Evolution, Leader of the Maldives Sea Level Project
Seems legit?
So the glaciers are melting but not causing the sea level to rise... Didn't I mention this just a few days ago in the Bitemarks 1.10 comments? Hmmm, yes I did. And here's a leading expert on sea levels agreeing with me. I'm feeling positive. I'm inclined to believe. In fact, since the Ice Age, sea level has fallen...
*strokes chin*
Interesting...
So just how much CO2 is there? Shitloads right? We're pumping it out in tons!
These gases in the atmosphere (in order) by percent are:
Nitrogen 78.1%
Oxygen 20.9%
Argon 0.9%
Carbon Dioxide 0.0378% (NCAR 2005)
Neon 0.002%
Helium 0.0005%
Methane 0.0001778% (NCAR 2005)
Krypton 0.0001%
Hydrogen 0.00005%
Water vapor 0 to 4%
Ozone 0.000004%
Oh... Well those figures are four years old... But still. You see my point?
So global warming... What about global cooling?
http://www.climatecooling.org/
As the sun goes even quieter and January, 2008 saw the greatest year to year temperature drop ever (128 years of NASA GISS data) and thru the end of 2008 remains relatively cool, it is clear cooling needs to be considered as a very plausible future.
:O Warming, cooling? Which is it?!
The southern hemisphere has been cooling over the last 10 years, just about as much as the north has been warming.
:o Both?! But that's bizarre! Does this mean... that there's no real net change? O_O Possibly.
Well that's a lot of information to take in and I doubt you've read it all. But already some interesting 'facts' have come to light. No rise in sea level whatsoever. CO2 levels 2-4 times LOWER than when the dinosaurs ruled the Earth (what sort of industrialization were they running?!) Temperatures both increasing and decreasing. CO2 linked to both warming and cooling and neither! O_O
Who to believe... That's your decision. All I can do is provide you with the information scientists make available.
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